Many of the labour market statistics on this website and those used in Inclusion’s Research and Consultancy work depend on our expertise in time series analysis. While many of the time series displayed in the labour market statistics section are derived from published National Statistics estimates, the series chosen are selected for their relevance to those helping workless people towards work. Much time series analysis depends on the identification of turning points and trends.
We can identify trends using a range of curve-fitting methods, and project these forward into the medium-term future. On top of these are superimposed cyclical effects from broad economic changes, which normally change over a period of years. The discussion in our monthly labour market analyses is frequently concerned with the identification of turning points in the economic cycle as it affects employment and worklessness. The third level in time series analysis is that of seasonal variation. Local employment and unemployment information is never seasonally adjusted by National Statistics, and therefore regular seasonal changes can cause problems with identifying how far service providers are ‘on track’ to meet targets within the year. Profiling within the year is the obverse of seasonal adjustment and is concerned with knowing whether the outturn one month is above or below the expected value for that month.
While many of the statistics displayed on this website use these methods at national level, in our local level work we utilise these for research and consultancy commissioners. Current projects using these methods include (links):
Previous projects using time series methods include:
