The labour market figures published on 14 December 2011 were poor, but not quite as poor as the past few months.
The monthly changes (less precise than quarterly ones) showed a rise in employment and slackening of the rise in unemployment. On the basis of later Jobseeker’s Allowance claimant count figures, we expect a further slackening of the rise.
The rise in Jobseeker’s Allowance claims continues to be caused by a decline in leavers rather than a rise in new claims. New claims are flat to falling. Durations of Jobseeker’s Allowance claims are therefore increasing. The rise in ILO unemployment is following fairly closely the trend for Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants.
Jobseeker’s Allowance flows into long-term unemployment are continuing to rise. The proportion reaching 12 months has now risen to 13.6%. The overall pattern is worsening. This figure is just 0.1% below the recession peak. The previous time the proportion was at this level was in the early 1990s.
The ending of programmes that required people to leave benefits in favour of the Work Programme has accounted for some of the rise, but there seems little sign of stabilisation of the rates five months into the Work Programme.
The most positive sign is an increase in Jobcentre Plus vacancies. However, this does not reflect an increase in overall vacancies recorded by the ONS survey, so employers may be shifting to the free Jobcentre Plus/Business Link service rather than paying to place vacancies.
Youth unemployment is now well over the one million mark, and continues to worsen. There has been a particularly sharp rise in the numbers of unemployed young people who are in full-time education. The numbers of young people who are inactive and not in education has fallen, leading to a small fall in the number of young people workless and not in full-time education.
Key Facts
Unemployment is 2,638,000, up 16,000 from last months published figure, and the unemployment rate is 8.3 %, up 0.03 %, on last month.
The number of claimant unemployed is 1,598,600, up 3,000 and the claimant rate is 5 %.
Youth unemployment (not including students) is 730,000, up 21,000 in the quarter, 10 % of the youth population (up 0.3 % in the quarter).
Youth unemployment (including students) is 1,027,000, up 54,000 on the quarter.
There are 5.7 unemployed people per vacancy. We estimate it will continue to rise to 5.8.
The employment rate is 70.3 % (up 0.1% on last month's published figure and down 0.2 % in the preferred quarterly measure).
December 2011
Inclusion Comment
The labour market figures published on 14 December 2011 were poor, but not quite as poor as the past few months.
The monthly changes (less precise than quarterly ones) showed a rise in employment and slackening of the rise in unemployment. On the basis of later Jobseeker’s Allowance claimant count figures, we expect a further slackening of the rise.
The rise in Jobseeker’s Allowance claims continues to be caused by a decline in leavers rather than a rise in new claims. New claims are flat to falling. Durations of Jobseeker’s Allowance claims are therefore increasing. The rise in ILO unemployment is following fairly closely the trend for Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants.
Jobseeker’s Allowance flows into long-term unemployment are continuing to rise. The proportion reaching 12 months has now risen to 13.6%. The overall pattern is worsening. This figure is just 0.1% below the recession peak. The previous time the proportion was at this level was in the early 1990s.
The ending of programmes that required people to leave benefits in favour of the Work Programme has accounted for some of the rise, but there seems little sign of stabilisation of the rates five months into the Work Programme.
The most positive sign is an increase in Jobcentre Plus vacancies. However, this does not reflect an increase in overall vacancies recorded by the ONS survey, so employers may be shifting to the free Jobcentre Plus/Business Link service rather than paying to place vacancies.
Youth unemployment is now well over the one million mark, and continues to worsen. There has been a particularly sharp rise in the numbers of unemployed young people who are in full-time education. The numbers of young people who are inactive and not in education has fallen, leading to a small fall in the number of young people workless and not in full-time education.
Key Facts